GDP growth estimated at 4.2% in the first quarter of 2025, driven by agricultural recovery and domestic demand.

Moroccan Economy Expected to Grow by 4.2% in Q1 2025

According to forecasts from the High Commission for Planning (HCP), the Moroccan economy is projected to achieve a growth rate of 4.2% in the first quarter of 2025. This rebound is expected to be driven primarily by a 3.1% recovery in agricultural activities and a 4.2% increase in value added outside of agriculture compared to the same period last year.

This upward trend is largely attributed to strong domestic demand, while the negative contribution of foreign trade to growth has diminished, now standing at –1.1 points. This change is due to a slowdown in imports and moderate export activity.

On the sectoral front, growth has been propelled by:

• Merchant services, which saw an increase of 13.2%, particularly in the hospitality sector;
• Extractive industries, which grew by 6.7%;
• The construction sector, which increased by 6.4%.

In contrast, the manufacturing industry, which relies more heavily on foreign trade, experienced a slight decline in its contribution to growth, decreasing by 0.2 points.

Household consumption remains a crucial pillar of this growth. Bolstered by improved incomes resulting from recent socio-fiscal measures (such as salary increases in both the private and public sectors and a reduction in income tax), household consumption is anticipated to rise by 4.5%, despite a moderate rebound in inflation.