A Persisting Paradox as Eid Approaches

As Eid Al-Adha 2026 draws near, one observation stands out: the sheep market is marked by a stubborn paradox. While official data indicate a significantly surplus supply, prices in several cities continue to strain household budgets. This situation raises questions about the true mechanisms behind price formation.

Reassuring Figures, Yet Real Pressure Persists

On a theoretical level, all indicators appear positive. The national livestock population has reached nearly 32.8 million heads, with an estimated supply for Eid more than double the expected demand. Recent rains have also improved raising conditions, partially reducing feeding costs. However, this improvement is not clearly reflected in the markets.

The Captive Market of Informal Circuits

One key to understanding this situation lies in the very structure of the market. Rather than a smooth pathway between breeders and consumers, sheep marketing heavily relies on intermediary networks. These actors, especially active during periods of high demand, organize the supply to urban centers but also contribute to rising prices with each transaction.

A Value Chain Partially Beyond Breeders’ Reach

In this system, the breeder is not always the primary beneficiary of price increases. Between leaving the farm and the final purchase, the value of the animal can rise significantly. This phenomenon exacerbates the gap between the actual production costs and the price paid by consumers, fostering a sense of injustice.

Alternatives Still Hard to Access

In light of this situation, short supply chains remain a limited option. Weekly markets and direct sales points exist, but access to them is uneven across regions, particularly for residents of major cities. This constraint reinforces dependency on intermediary networks, which dominate much of the trading.

Costs that Sustain Tension

To this market organization, persistent economic factors add complexity. The price of feed, while slightly improving, remains high, and transportation costs continue to inflate the final price. These elements maintain price pressures, even in a context of ample supply.

A Last-Minute Adjustment on the Horizon?

As each year approaches Eid, a correction in prices seems feasible when supply floods the markets. However, there is no guarantee that this decrease will be significant or enduring. Experiences from previous seasons indicate that adjustments are often limited.

A Structural Challenge Beyond Eid

More than a cyclical issue, the Eid Al-Adha market highlights the limitations of a poorly regulated distribution system. As long as marketing circuits remain dominated by multiple intermediaries, the dynamics of prices will continue to evade the classic rules of supply and demand.