Slowdown of National Economic Growth in Q2 2024
The national accounts report for the second quarter of 2024 highlights a slowdown in national economic growth, which reached 3.7%, down from 4.2% during the same period in 2023, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP). This development, largely driven by domestic demand, occurs within an environment characterized by controlled inflation management, yet it also indicates a worsening financing need for the economy, as noted by the HCP in an information brief on the national economic situation for the fourth quarter of 2024.
Economic sectors displayed mixed performances. Non-agricultural activities grew by 4.4%, while agricultural sectors recorded a decline of 4.9%, the HCP emphasized.
Analysis of Economic Sectors
In more detail, the value added of the primary sector, adjusted for seasonal variations, fell by 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to a slight decline of 0.1% in the same quarter the previous year. This decrease is primarily due to the drop in agricultural value added, which decreased by 4.9% instead of recording an increase of 1%, while fishing witnessed modest growth of 0.8% instead of a decrease of 19.2%.
The secondary sector also experienced a slowdown, with growth of 4.9%, down from 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2023. This decline is attributed to a slowdown in activities across several sub-sectors: extractive industry growth slowed to 6.5% from 16.1%, the manufacturing industry progressed by 3.7% instead of 7.4%, while the construction and public works sector grew by 7% rather than 2.9%. Activities related to electricity, gas, water, sanitation, and waste management saw an increase of 5.7%, up from 3.6% in the previous year.
In contrast, the tertiary sector recorded a strong performance, with an increase of 4.2%, compared to 3.3% in the same quarter of 2023. This growth is notably attributed to the robust rise in accommodation and food services (+12.8%), public services (+3.9%), and trade and repairs of vehicles (+3.1%). However, slowdowns were observed in certain areas such as research and development and business services, which grew by 5.3% compared to 5.9%, and transport and storage, which increased by 4.6% instead of 5.3%.
Impact on GDP and Inflation
As a result, the value added from non-agricultural activities slightly accelerated its growth rate, rising from 4.3% to 4.4% compared to the same period the previous year. Additionally, the volume of net taxes on products increased by 6.7%, which allowed the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real terms to show a growth of 3.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 4.2% the previous year.
Finally, the current price GDP experienced an increase of 6.2%, compared to 8.4% in the same quarter of 2023, reflecting a general increase in price levels of 2.5%, down from 4.2% the previous year.
