Oil: IEA Raises Global Demand Forecasts for 2026
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates an improvement in global oil demand over the coming months. In its monthly report published on Friday, the Paris-based institution noted that the market shows signs of recovery, prompting it to slightly raise its forecasts for the year 2026.
According to the IEA, global consumption of black gold has gradually begun to rise again after hitting its lowest level in May, thanks to seasonal factors, the return of previously delayed demand, and improved supplies of petroleum products.
Demand Expected to Regain Positive Momentum
The agency’s latest projections indicate a gradual slowing of the decline in global consumption.
After a contraction of 4.8 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the same period the previous year, the decline is expected to taper to 1.7 million barrels per day in the third quarter.
The IEA forecasts a return to growth in the fourth quarter, with an estimated increase of 1.2 million barrels per day. For the year as a whole, global demand is anticipated to record an average decline of approximately 1 million barrels per day, a slightly more favorable forecast than the one published in June, where the agency predicted a drop of 1.1 million barrels per day.
Global Supply Rebounds After Disruptions in the Middle East
On the production side, the International Energy Agency highlights a significant recovery in global supply in June.
Production increased by 4.1 million barrels per day, reaching 98.8 million barrels per day. This improvement is partly attributed to the partial resumption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, following a ceasefire established on June 17.
Despite this rebound, the IEA reminds us that production levels remain significantly lower than those observed before the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, with a deficit estimated at 9.4 million barrels per day.
Outlook Still Linked to Geopolitical Tensions
For the entirety of 2026, the agency now projects an average global production of 102.6 million barrels per day.
However, this forecast is contingent upon a rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region. The developments in the Middle Eastern conflict remain one of the key factors likely to influence the balance of the global oil market in the coming months.
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