Morocco: Cereal Harvest Could More Than Double by 2026-2027, According to USDA
A Promising Agricultural Outlook for Morocco
After a season marked by drought conditions, Morocco could see a remarkable rebound in its cereal production by 2026-2027. In its latest World Agricultural Production report published on July 10, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that the national harvest of wheat and barley will reach 9.9 million tons, compared to 4.45 million tons during the previous campaign.
These projections, derived from official data, satellite analyses, and observations from American agricultural attachés, indicate an increase of over 120% in Morocco’s cereal production.
Significant Gains Expected for Wheat
Wheat is anticipated to make the largest contribution to this recovery. The USDA forecasts a harvest of 7.5 million tons in 2026-2027, up from 3.5 million the previous year.
This improvement is attributed to an increase in harvested areas, which will expand from 2.2 to 2.8 million hectares, coupled with a notable rise in agricultural yields. Yields are expected to reach 2.68 tons per hectare, compared to 1.59 tons during the last season.
Barley Sees Record Growth
The outlook is also very favorable for barley.
Production is set to reach 2.4 million tons, marking an increase of over 150% compared to the 2025-2026 season.
According to U.S. estimates, harvested areas will increase to 1.1 million hectares, while the average yield will rise to 2.18 tons per hectare, confirming a significant improvement in production conditions.
Oats and Sunflower Seed Remain Stable
In contrast, forecasts for oats and sunflower seeds remain unchanged.
Oat production is expected to stay at 10,000 tons, while sunflower seed production will remain at 30,000 tons, with areas and yields consistent with previous campaigns.
Diverse Trends in Other Countries
The USDA report also highlights significantly different situations across the globe.
In France, corn harvest is expected to drop sharply due to drought and high temperatures, with production estimated at 10 million tons, marking its lowest level in over three decades.
Conversely, Argentina is projected to set a new record with 63 million tons of corn, while South Africa will also achieve a historic high of 18 million tons.
In contrast, Pakistan, hit by significant flooding, is expected to see a substantial decrease in its production.
Regarding wheat, Russia will maintain its position among the world’s leading producers with a forecasted harvest of 88.5 million tons, while Canada is expected to see a slight decline despite a production level above its five-year average.
A Glimmer of Hope for Moroccan Agriculture
These new estimates offer a promising signal for Moroccan agriculture after several seasons characterized by a historic rainfall deficit.
If these forecasts hold true, the rebound in cereal production would enhance food security in the Kingdom, reduce import needs, and improve farmers’ incomes.
However, the evolution of climatic conditions over the coming months will be crucial to confirm these particularly optimistic projections.
