A Majority, Four Programs: What Will the Compromise Cost?
Title: Balancing Promises and Reality: The Challenges Facing Morocco’s New Coalition Government
With 207 seats out of 395, the new coalition commands a comfortable parliamentary majority. However, transforming the electoral promises of the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), the Progress and Socialism Party (PPS), the Istiqlal Party, and the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP) into a sustainable fiscal trajectory presents its first significant economic challenge.
The electoral programs reveal substantial disparities in scale right from the outset. The PAM announces an additional 350 billion dirhams in spending over five years, averaging 70 billion dirhams per year. This plan primarily relies on an anticipated 300 billion dirhams in revenue that growth is expected to generate. Meanwhile, the PPS raises the bar to 575 billion dirhams, seeking to offset this with 622 billion dirhams in revenue through tax reform and sustained economic activity. On the other hand, while the Istiqlal and USFP propose numerous measures aimed at boosting purchasing power, employment, and public services, they have not presented comprehensive figures that are directly comparable.
The government’s first urgency will be methodological. The coalition needs to harmonize the costing of proposed measures, eliminate the risks of double counting, and distinguish truly new commitments from funds already allocated in public budgets.
However, this methodological clarification clashes with macroeconomic realities. The financial balance of the forthcoming roadmap will largely depend on optimistic activity assumptions. Yet, prevailing economic conditions are likely to impose strict limits. While the Ministry of Economy forecasts a GDP growth of 4.6% in 2026 following 4.8% in 2025, Bank Al-Maghrib is more conservative, anticipating growth of only 4.4% and already predicting a slowdown beginning in 2027. Relying on a continuous acceleration of tax revenues to finance sustainable expenditures carries a considerable risk of budgetary shortfalls.
Moreover, wealth creation does not automatically translate into tax revenues. Although the labor market shows signs of improvement—with 279,000 paid jobs created in the second quarter of 2026 and unemployment reduced to 9.5%—the economy still harbors deep structural vulnerabilities. Youth unemployment remains high at 27.2% among those aged 15-24, while the female labor force participation rate remains critically low at 18.1%, compared to 66.5% for men. Without reforms capable of integrating these demographics into the labor market, the tax base will remain constrained, further jeopardizing the funding of social promises.
Ultimately, the cohesion of the majority will depend on its ability to prioritize its agenda effectively over time. A credible government program will need to associate each measure with a clear cost, identified resources, and a precise timeline for execution. The four parties must be willing to defer or resize certain promises. The cost of compromise will not merely be a mathematical equation; it will be measured by the coalition’s capacity to make political trade-offs without distorting its shared vision.
Written by: Le Décrypteur
