CNSS: The Ratio That Reveals Who Will Pay

How Many Employees are Needed to Support a Retiree?

In 2025, the ratio of employees per retiree is projected to be 5.77, down from 6.03 the previous year. While this figure declines, the financial burden does not lessen. Contributions, retirement age, and pension levels—each lever has its cost.

At the CNSS (National Social Security Fund), the line of pensioners is growing twice as fast as that of contributors: an increase of 8% on one side compared to 3.6% on the other. As a result, 18.15 billion dirhams in pensions will be distributed in 2025, representing a 7.5% increase over the previous year, while aging and increased life expectancy widen the gap.

A pension fund is not a personal piggy bank; it relies on the contributions of active workers, reserves, and returns on investments. When the number of retirees grows faster than contributors, the pressure escalates, ultimately resulting in stricter parameters.

This situation is already apparent across all pension schemes. According to the financial stability report, contributions reached 73 billion dirhams in 2025 (+9.3%), but benefits climbed to 75.3 billion dirhams (+5.8%). The system is thus already running a deficit of 2.3 billion dirhams. While reserves, standing at 341 billion dirhams by the end of 2025, may seem reassuring, they are unevenly distributed. Some public funds are left with only a few years of viability without significant parametric reform.

The Moroccan paradox lies in the coexistence of net job creation alongside a still narrow contributory base. The HCP (High Commission for Planning) recorded 193,000 net jobs created in 2025, yet unemployment stands at 13%, and the labor force participation rate is capped at 41.8% in the first quarter of 2026. Hence, the number of future contributors hinges on the economy’s capacity to integrate more youth and women into formal and declared employment.

This complexity makes reform particularly sensitive. The government has promised a two-pillar system, encompassing both public and private sectors. The CESE (Economic, Social and Environmental Council) calls in its 2025 annual report for the urgent need to “update and finalize actuarial studies and parametric reforms” prior to implementation. The critical word here: urgently.

However, addressing legal parameters isn’t enough. Another, less visible dimension is equally crucial. More contributors are required—therefore, there needs to be more formal employment, longer and more stable careers, and adequately high salaries to sustainably fuel the funds.

The HCP emphasizes that the generations retiring between 2040 and 2070 are building their rights today. Therefore, reform concerns not only current retirees but also the young graduate struggling to find a job, the employee juggling declared and undeclared periods, the woman temporarily leaving the labor market, the company failing to report total compensation, and the worker starting their career with a salary of 3,600 dirhams. The sustainability of pensions depends as much on regulations as on the employment trajectories the economy provides.

Thus, the figure of 5.77 deserves close monitoring, not merely as another technical indicator but as a thermometer measuring intergenerational contracts. Every point lost translates into increased pressure on contributors, reduced room for raising pensions, and greater uncertainty. The ratio already indicates that someone will pay; it will be the labor market we construct that will decide how much.