Russian wheat: Exports to Morocco plummet significantly
Decline in Russian Wheat Exports to Morocco
Russian wheat shipments to Morocco have seen a significant slowdown in August. During the second decade of the month, Russian deliveries to the Kingdom dropped to 5,000 tons, a volume twelve times lower than that recorded during the same period last year.
This decline occurs against a backdrop of a sharp contraction in Russian grain exports, impacted by navigation difficulties and damage to some port infrastructures in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.
Morocco Among the Few Markets Still Supplied
According to the Russian Grain Union (RZS), Russian wheat was only shipped to eight countries between August 11 and 20, compared to 28 destinations during the same period in 2022.
With just 5,000 tons received, Morocco lags far behind the primary buyers of Russian wheat. Bangladesh leads the pack with 110,000 tons, followed by Indonesia with 66,000 tons and Saudi Arabia with 62,600 tons.
Egypt received 62,000 tons, while the United Arab Emirates imported 35,600 tons. Russia also shipped 30,000 tons to Mexico before the 5,000 tons designated for the Moroccan market.
Russian Grain Exports Under Severe Disruption
The decline in deliveries to Morocco is part of a broader reduction in Russian grain exports.
Between August 1 and 20, Russia exported about 1.4 million tons of grains, which is 2.5 times less than a year earlier.
Wheat exports have seen a particularly sharp decline, with just over one million tons shipped, representing a 2.6-fold drop year-on-year. Barley shipments decreased by 2.9 times to 168,000 tons, while corn shipments reached 98,000 tons, down by 1.7 times.
During the second decade of August alone, Russian grain exports were limited to 478,800 tons, which is 4.8 times less than the same period last year.
Port Difficulties Disrupt Deliveries
The RZS primarily attributes this contraction to logistical problems encountered in the main Russian grain basins.
Navigation difficulties and damage to certain port facilities in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea complicate the transportation of grains to international markets.
This situation has also reduced the number of ports and companies involved in exports. Only eight ports were used for grain shipments during the observed period, compared to 29 a year earlier.
If these conditions persist, the RZS estimates that Russian grain exports could be limited to about 1.8 to 1.9 million tons in August, including 1.5 to 1.6 million tons of wheat. This would represent the lowest level recorded in a decade.
Russian Decline Supports American and European Wheat Prices
The reduction in available volumes from Russia is also beginning to influence international prices.
During the second decade of August, the price of American wheat rose by $11, reaching $281 per ton. French wheat increased by $3, up to $265.
In contrast, the price of Russian wheat loaded at Novorossiisk fell by $4, settling at $220 per ton FOB.
Since the start of the grain marketing season on July 1, prices for European and American wheat have risen, while Russian wheat prices have moved in the opposite direction.
Increased Pressure on Russian Producers
The slowdown in exports is also weighing heavily on the domestic Russian market.
The price of fourth-class wheat has dropped to around 11,500 rubles per ton, down from 11,900 rubles previously. In dollar terms, the price paid to producers is approximately $138 per ton.
According to the RZS, the prices received by Russian producers have decreased by about 20% in rubles and 27% in dollars since the beginning of the campaign.
This trend comes as Russian producers were already dealing with what are considered low margins. The decline in exports and logistical difficulties could therefore further increase pressure on the sector’s profitability.
What Impact for the Moroccan Market?
The drop in Russian shipments to Morocco occurs in a fast-evolving international grain market where availability and prices fluctuate rapidly.
With just 5,000 tons delivered during the second decade of August, the Kingdom clearly falls behind the primary outlets for Russian wheat.
The evolution of flows in the coming weeks will determine whether this decline is a temporary phenomenon linked to Russian logistical difficulties or if it indicates a more lasting change in the supply for the Moroccan market.
