CNSS: The Ratio That Indicates Who Will Foot the Bill
How Many Workers Are Needed to Support One Retiree? 5.77 in 2025, Down from 6.03 a Year Earlier
The number is decreasing, but the financial burden is not. Contributions, retirement age, and pension levels: each lever comes at a cost.
At the CNSS (Caisse Nationale de Sécurité Sociale), the line of retirees is growing twice as fast as that of contributors: an increase of 8% on one side compared to just 3.6% on the other. As a result, pensions are projected to reach 18.15 billion dirhams in 2025, representing a 7.5% increase over the previous year, as aging and increased life expectancy widen the gap even further.
A pension fund is not a private piggy bank; it relies on contributions from the workforce, reserves, and returns on its investments. When the number of retirees increases faster than contributors, pressure mounts, and this ultimately translates into stricter parameters.
This trend is already visible across all pension systems. According to the Financial Stability Report, contributions reached 73 billion dirhams in 2025 (a 9.3% increase), but benefits climbed to 75.3 billion dirhams (up by 5.8%). Consequently, the system is already facing a deficit of 2.3 billion dirhams. Although reserves amounting to 341 billion dirhams at the end of 2025 may seem reassuring, they are very unevenly distributed. Some public funds have only a few years of viability left without substantial reform.
The Moroccan paradox lies in the simultaneous existence of net job creation and a still narrow contribution base. The HCP (Haut-Commissariat au Plan) reported that 193,000 net jobs were created in 2025, yet unemployment stands at 13%, with the labor force participation rate plateauing at 41.8% in the first quarter of 2026. Thus, the future number of contributors depends on the economy’s ability to integrate more youth and women into formal and declared employment.
This explains the sensitivity surrounding the reform. The government promises a dual system, incorporating both public and private sectors. The CESE (Economic, Social and Environmental Council), in its 2025 annual report, urges prompt updates and completion of actuarial studies and parametric reforms before implementation. The key word: urgently.
However, legal adjustments alone won’t resolve the issue. Another, less visible dimension is equally critical. More contributors necessitate more formal jobs, longer and steadier careers, and sufficiently high wages to sustainably support the funds.
The HCP emphasizes that the generations retiring between 2040 and 2070 are currently building their entitlements. This reform is not just about current retirees; it also concerns the young graduate struggling to find a job, the employee navigating periods of declared and undeclared work, the woman temporarily exiting the labor market, the company that fails to report the full salary, and the worker starting their career at 3,600 dirhams. The sustainability of pensions relies equally on rules and the employment trajectories the economy offers.
The figure of 5.77 warrants ongoing attention—not merely as another technical indicator but as a gauge of the intergenerational contract. Each point lost translates into increased pressure on contributors, reduced room for pension adjustments, and greater uncertainty. The ratio already indicates that someone will pay; it is the labor market we will shape that will determine how much.
