Labor Market: The HCP Confirms the Stagnation of Graduates in Long-Term Unemployment
Changing Perspectives on Labor Market Analysis in Morocco
The High Commission for Planning (HCP) has shifted its approach to analyzing the labor market. The latest analysis available regarding long-term unemployment, pertaining to the second quarter, confirms the stagnation faced by graduates. Nearly three-quarters of unemployed individuals holding an advanced degree had been seeking employment for at least a year.
Since 2026, the HCP has evaluated unemployment through a new Labor Force Survey (EMO), which replaces the previous National Employment Survey (ENE) and introduces a more restrictive definition of unemployment.
As of the third quarter of 2026, the strict unemployment rate stands at 10.5%, equating to 1.224 million individuals who are unemployed, available to work, and actively seeking paid employment.
Graduates: The Most Affected
However, the most concerning indicator is not the overall unemployment rate but rather the duration of unemployment. According to the latest quarterly analysis available on long-term strict unemployment, covering the second quarter of 2026, 72.6% of unemployed individuals with advanced degrees had been searching for employment for at least twelve months. This figure was 69.5% for those with intermediate degrees, compared to 28.9% among the uneducated.
These statistics confirm a longstanding imbalance in the Moroccan labor market. The higher the educational level, the harder it seems to escape unemployment. The HCP itself characterizes strict unemployment among graduates as a phenomenon marked by challenges in initial job placement and extended durations of unemployment. This situation highlights a disconnect between the skills produced by the education system and the jobs that are genuinely available, which are often concentrated in low-skilled, informal, or low-productivity sectors.
Thus, the issue is not merely quantitative; it is structural. The market is failing to create enough qualified, stable jobs that align with the profiles produced by higher education.
A New, More Stringent Measurement
The EMO establishes a new baseline. Future quarterly and annual results will allow for monitoring the evolution of long-term unemployment within this new framework. However, it cannot yet definitively measure an acceleration or deceleration compared to 2025.
Insights from the Previous Series
Nevertheless, the most recent annual data available under the old methodology remains illuminating. In 2025, 64.8% of unemployed individuals had been seeking work for at least twelve months, compared to 62.4% in 2024. The average duration of unemployment reached 33 months, an increase from 31 months the year prior.
This transition in analysis underscores the critical need for strategic changes in education and employment policies to effectively bridge the gap between qualifications and available job opportunities in Morocco.
