Soft Wheat: French Exports to Morocco Slow Down

French soft wheat exports to Morocco are expected to slow significantly during the 2026-2027 campaign. Between September 2026 and May 2027, French shipments are projected to reach around 2.5 million tons, compared to 3.5 million tons in the previous campaign.

This forecast was announced on Tuesday, October 6, in Casablanca by Quentin Bellet, a representative of the National Union of Foreign Trade in Cereals (Synacomex). The decrease is primarily attributed to an improvement in Moroccan wheat harvests after two consecutive years impacted by drought.

A Significant Increase in Moroccan Harvests

Morocco’s cereal situation has evolved significantly over the past year. Previous droughts sharply reduced national production and affected grain quality, prompting the Kingdom to increase its imports.

This year, favorable rainfall has allowed Moroccan soft wheat production to reach 4.4 million tons. This improvement naturally reduces import needs and partly explains the expected drop in purchases from France.

Moreover, Rabat suspended soft wheat imports starting June 1 to facilitate the sale of the national harvest. Imports resumed in September, with the market still facing substantial demands.

France Has Sufficient Supplies

Despite the anticipated decrease in sales to Morocco, France retains a significant supply capacity. This year’s soft wheat harvest is expected to reach approximately 32 million tons.

Initial shipments have already begun, with about 600,000 tons of French wheat sold in the Moroccan market during October.

The French sector believes it has adequate volumes to meet the Kingdom’s needs. This availability is crucial for Moroccan importers, especially as market conditions remain sensitive to fluctuations in international prices and developments in the Black Sea region.

Limited Moroccan Stocks

However, Moroccan importers must contend with relatively limited stocks. Current reserves are estimated at around 600,000 tons, equivalent to nearly two months of consumption, according to Moulay Abdelkader Alaoui, president of the National Federation of Millers (FNM).

In response to strong European demand and rising prices, Moroccan operators are turning to France, Germany, and other European suppliers to rebuild their stocks.

This situation could maintain some pressure on imports over the coming months, even though overall needs are expected to be lower than those seen in the previous campaign.

Increased Import Subsidy

The pricing context has also led the National Interprofessional Office for Cereals and Pulses (ONICL) to raise the subsidy granted to soft wheat importers.

For October, this support has been increased to 44.48 dirhams per quintal, up from 20.8 dirhams in September. The scheme aims to reduce the gap between the cost of wheat purchased on international markets and the prices applied in the domestic market.

According to the National Federation of Millers, the previous subsidy only covered part of this gap. Consequently, purchases were primarily made by operators with immediate needs.

Risk of Port Congestion

The resumption of imports also raises logistical concerns. Industry professionals fear that port terminals and road transport capacities may become congested as wheat arrivals increase.

This issue is not new. Earlier this year, adverse weather disrupted unloading operations at the port of Casablanca. Several grain ships had to wait offshore, resulting in additional costs for importers.

The expected increase in imports will need to be accompanied by effective management of port and land transport capacities to avoid further congestion.

Morocco Remains a Key Market for France

The projected decline in French exports does not undermine the significance of the Moroccan market for the French cereal sector.

However, FranceAgriMer revised down its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union for the 2026-2027 campaign to 6.3 million tons, down from 7 million tons estimated in July, largely due to the anticipated decrease in Moroccan demand.

During the 2025-2026 campaign, Morocco was the top destination for French soft wheat outside the European Union, with shipments reaching 2.73 million tons between July and March, compared to an average of 1.5 million tons over the previous five campaigns.

The 2026-2027 campaign is thus expected to return to more normal import levels following an exceptional period due to weak national cereal production.